Battle of the Former Governors

By Bristol Herald Courier Editorial Board

Published: June 3, 2008

Virginia Republicans have pinned their hopes of holding Sen. John Warner’s seat on the unlikely shoulders of former Gov. Jim Gilmore.
Gilmore, one of the least popular governors in recent memory, will face one of the state’s most popular former executives, Democrat Mark Warner. The contest shouldn’t be close.

Gilmore barely eked out a convention win Saturday against Delegate Bob Marshall, a social conservative who challenged him from the right. Marshall – who lacks Gilmore’s statewide name recognition – lost by a mere 65 votes. Not even Republican die-hards (the sort who participate in conventions) are enthralled with Gilmore.

Social conservatives backed Marshall because they part company with Gilmore on abortion, which the former governor believes is a matter of individual choice in the first eight weeks of a pregnancy. Marshall, who is Catholic, opposes abortion in all circumstances and has fought to pass laws restricting it.

Gilmore can likely shore up his support among social conservatives, but the requisite pandering will almost certainly alienate independents and Republican moderates. Many middle-of-the-road voters, particularly in Northern Virginia, will gravitate to Warner, a centrist Democrat with a record of fiscal responsibility.

Gilmore’s minions are attempting to tar Warner as a “limousine liberal” and as a tax-and-spend politician, but the facts don’t back such an assertion. Warner raised taxes to plug a budget hole created by Gilmore administration policies, but did so with the support of many Republican state lawmakers. Gilmore comes from the no-tax, but still spend, wing of his party.

In part, the state’s budget distress was caused by Gilmore’s signature gubernatorial campaign gimmick – a pledge to eliminate the state’s personal property tax, also known as the car tax. The tax was to be phased out in increments until it was eliminated. Gilmore pushed ahead with the phase-out even after the state’s economy entered a post-Sept. 11 downturn, setting the stage for what would become a $6 billion government shortfall. Some Gilmore supporters offer this as evidence that Gilmore is “a man of his word,” but it might also be interpreted as a sign of bullheaded obstinacy.

Basking in the glow of his convention win, Gilmore gave indications that this year’s version of the “no car tax” campaign is already being cooked up at Gilmore HQ. Only this time, the campaign hopes to tap voter anger at $4-per-gallon gasoline and ride this wave of resentment into the U.S. Senate. More precisely, Gilmore has pledged to allow drilling in the Alaskan wilderness and off the coast. Gilmore hasn’t said exactly how this will lead to lower prices, and most experts don’t believe this exploration will impact prices at the pump.

Warner, meanwhile, is campaigning on a number of themes likely to resonate with Virginians – expanding health care, boosting education to compete in the global marketplace and investing in the nation’s deteriorating infrastructure. He also promises a troop drawdown in Iraq, but not an immediate withdrawal.

The former governors are vying to replace John Warner, who is retiring after almost three decades in office. Over the years, John Warner has built a solid reputation as a Republican moderate who has helped craft compromise on issues ranging from judicial selections to the military. He has shown himself to be more interested in the art of governing than in politicking.

Mark Warner is positioning himself as the heir to John Warner’s moderate mantle. Virginia voters should take note.